Will Medicare Take Your 2027 Social Security Raise? The Hold-Harmless Rule Explained
Will Medicare Take Your 2027 Social Security Raise?
Social Security benefits are officially increasing by 3.6% in 2027, but millions of retirees have another question:
How much of that increase will Medicare take?
For many Social Security beneficiaries, the Medicare Part B premium is automatically deducted from their monthly benefit.
That means a higher Part B premium can reduce the amount of the Social Security COLA that actually reaches your bank account.
There is, however, an important protection built into federal law called the:
Medicare Part B hold-harmless provision.
For people who qualify, the rule generally prevents an increase in the standard Medicare Part B premium from making their net Social Security benefit lower solely because the Part B premium increased.
The timing makes this especially important for 2027.
The Social Security Administration has officially announced a:
3.6% COLA
for 2027.
But as of October 31, 2026, CMS has not yet announced the final standard Medicare Part B premium for 2027.
The latest Medicare Trustees Report estimates a standard premium of:
$209.50 per month
compared with:
$202.90 in 2026.
That would be an increase of:
$6.60 per month.
But $209.50 remains a projection, not the final 2027 Part B premium.
Here is how the hold-harmless rule works, who qualifies, who does not, and how Medicare could affect your actual 2027 Social Security increase.
2027 Social Security COLA and Medicare Part B at a Glance
| Item | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Social Security COLA | 2.8% | 3.6% |
| Standard Part B premium | $202.90 | $209.50 projected |
| Projected Part B increase | — | +$6.60/month |
| Average retired-worker benefit before 2027 COLA | $2,095 | — |
| Estimated average after COLA | — | $2,170 |
| Hold-harmless protection | Applies to qualifying beneficiaries | Continues |
The Social Security numbers are official.
The $209.50 Part B premium is not yet final.
CMS will announce the official 2027 Part B premium separately.
Will Medicare Take Your Entire 2027 Social Security Raise?
For most beneficiaries, under the current Medicare Trustees projection:
No.
SSA estimates the average retired-worker benefit will rise from approximately:
$2,095
to:
$2,170
after the 3.6% COLA.
That represents an increase of:
$75 per month.
If the standard Medicare Part B premium rises from $202.90 to the projected $209.50, the monthly Medicare increase would be:
$209.50 − $202.90 = $6.60
So a simplified average example would look like this:
Before the 2027 COLA
Gross Social Security benefit:
$2,095
Minus 2026 Part B premium:
$202.90
Approximate amount after Part B:
$1,892.10
After the 2027 COLA
Gross Social Security benefit:
$2,170
Minus projected 2027 Part B premium:
$209.50
Approximate amount after Part B:
$1,960.50
Difference:
$1,960.50 − $1,892.10 = $68.40 more per month
In this example, Medicare would consume:
$6.60 of the $75 gross COLA increase
leaving approximately:
$68.40
before considering any other deductions, taxes or premiums.
Again, this is an illustration based on the Medicare Trustees’ projected premium.
Your actual amount will depend on the final CMS premium and your individual Social Security benefit.
What Is the Medicare Hold-Harmless Rule?
The hold-harmless provision is a protection under federal law designed to prevent certain Social Security beneficiaries from receiving a smaller net Social Security check simply because the standard Medicare Part B premium increased.
The Social Security Administration describes the rule as protecting qualifying benefits from decreasing because of a year-to-year Part B premium increase.
In simple terms:
If your Social Security COLA is too small to cover the applicable increase in your Medicare Part B premium, the Part B increase may be limited.
The goal is to prevent your January Social Security payment, after the Part B deduction, from being lower than the comparable December payment solely because Part B became more expensive.
Simple Hold-Harmless Example
Imagine a hypothetical beneficiary receives a COLA increase of only:
$5 per month.
Now imagine the applicable Part B premium would otherwise increase by:
$10 per month.
Without protection, that person could end up:
$5 worse off each month
despite receiving a Social Security COLA.
For someone who qualifies for hold-harmless protection, the Part B premium increase may instead be limited so the Medicare increase does not by itself make the person’s Social Security payment lower.
The rule therefore does not guarantee a large Social Security increase.
It protects against a specific problem:
a Part B premium increase wiping out more than the applicable Social Security COLA for a qualifying beneficiary.
Does Hold Harmless Mean Medicare Cannot Take Any of Your COLA?
No.
This is one of the most common misunderstandings.
The hold-harmless provision does not mean the Medicare Part B premium cannot increase.
It means that, for qualifying beneficiaries, the increase may be limited when necessary to prevent their net Social Security payment from decreasing solely because of the Part B premium increase.
For example:
Suppose your Social Security COLA gives you:
$50 more per month.
And your applicable standard Part B premium rises by:
$7 per month.
Your Part B premium could generally rise by the full $7 because the $50 Social Security increase is large enough to absorb it.
You would still be approximately:
$43 ahead
before other deductions.
Hold harmless becomes especially important when the dollar value of someone’s COLA is small relative to the Part B premium increase.
Who Qualifies for the Medicare Hold-Harmless Provision?
SSA lists several conditions.
Generally, hold-harmless protection applies when you:
- are entitled to Social Security benefits for November and December;
- receive cash benefits for those months;
- have the Medicare Part B premiums for December and January deducted from your Social Security benefits; and
- would otherwise receive a smaller benefit in January solely because the Part B premium increased too much relative to your Social Security benefit.
Most people who receive Social Security and have their standard Part B premium automatically deducted are in the group considered for the protection.
But there are important exceptions.
Who Does NOT Get Hold-Harmless Protection?
Not everyone with Medicare qualifies.
1. People Paying Medicare IRMAA
If your income is high enough that you pay an:
Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount, or IRMAA,
you do not receive the normal hold-harmless protection against the income-related Part B premium.
SSA explicitly states that people paying an income-related Part B premium do not receive this protection.
That means higher-income Medicare beneficiaries can potentially experience a different result from someone paying only the standard Part B premium.
2. New Medicare Part B Enrollees
People enrolling in Medicare Part B for the first time generally are not protected by the hold-harmless rule for their first premium.
They do not have the same prior-year Part B premium deduction against which the rule can operate.
If you turn 65 and begin Part B in 2027, you should therefore expect to pay the applicable 2027 premium based on your situation.
3. Some People Who Pay Medicare Directly
The hold-harmless test generally depends on the Part B premium being deducted from Social Security benefits for the relevant months.
Most people receiving Social Security have Part B premiums deducted automatically.
But some Medicare beneficiaries pay CMS directly because they are not yet receiving Social Security benefits.
Those situations may not qualify for the same hold-harmless protection.
4. People Whose State Medicaid Program Pays the Premium
Some low-income Medicare beneficiaries have their Part B premium paid by a state Medicaid agency through a Medicare Savings Program or related arrangement.
SSA explains that the beneficiary hold-harmless protection does not operate in the same way when the state is paying the premium.
The beneficiary may already be protected from paying the premium personally because the state is covering it.
Does Hold Harmless Apply to Medicare Advantage Premiums?
The federal hold-harmless provision discussed here specifically concerns:
Medicare Part B premiums.
It does not generally protect you from increases in every Medicare-related expense.
For example, your total retirement budget could still be affected by changes in:
- Medicare Advantage plan premiums;
- Part D premiums;
- Medigap premiums;
- prescription drug costs;
- copayments;
- deductibles;
- dental or vision premiums.
That is why your actual bank deposit can potentially change for reasons unrelated to the standard Part B premium.
Does Hold Harmless Protect Against Medicare Part D Premiums?
No.
The Social Security hold-harmless provision is specifically tied to:
Medicare Part B.
Part D prescription drug premiums operate separately.
For 2027, Medicare Part D has several confirmed changes, including:
$700 defined-standard deductible
and:
$2,400 annual out-of-pocket threshold.
You can review those changes in our complete Medicare Part D 2027 guide.
Does Hold Harmless Protect Against IRMAA?
No.
This is particularly important for higher-income retirees.
IRMAA is an additional Medicare premium amount paid by beneficiaries whose modified adjusted gross income exceeds applicable thresholds.
Someone paying IRMAA can pay significantly more than the standard Medicare Part B premium.
SSA explicitly states:
people paying an income-related Part B premium do not get normal hold-harmless protection.
If your income recently dropped because of a qualifying life-changing event such as retirement, marriage, divorce or loss of income-producing property, you may be able to ask SSA to reconsider your IRMAA calculation under applicable rules.
Why Does Medicare Part B Come Out of Social Security?
Most people who receive Social Security benefits and have Medicare Part B do not manually pay the premium every month.
Medicare generally deducts the Part B premium directly from:
your Social Security payment
or, in some cases:
your Railroad Retirement Board benefit.
That is why retirees often focus on their:
net Social Security check
rather than only the gross COLA percentage.
A 3.6% increase in your gross Social Security benefit does not necessarily mean your bank deposit increases by exactly 3.6%.
What Is the 2027 Medicare Part B Premium?
As of October 31, 2026, the final 2027 standard Medicare Part B premium has not yet been officially announced by CMS.
The current official Medicare Trustees estimate is:
$209.50 per month.
For comparison:
2026 standard Part B premium:
$202.90
Projected 2027 premium:
$209.50
Difference:
$6.60 per month
Annual difference:
$6.60 × 12 = $79.20
The percentage increase would be approximately:
$6.60 ÷ $202.90 × 100 = 3.25%
But the final premium can differ from the Trustees estimate.
Do not treat $209.50 as confirmed until CMS publishes the official 2027 Medicare Part B premium.
Our dedicated 2027 Medicare Part B Premium vs. Social Security COLA guide tracks that figure separately.
Why Isn’t the 2027 Part B Premium Official Yet?
Social Security and Medicare operate on different announcement schedules.
SSA has already announced the official:
3.6% Social Security COLA
because the necessary inflation data has been published.
CMS calculates Medicare premiums separately using projected program expenses and financing requirements.
SSA says Medicare beneficiaries will be able to see their personalized 2027 benefit amount—including Medicare deductions—in their my Social Security account around late November.
People receiving paper notices should receive their personalized COLA notice during December.
See our 2027 Social Security COLA Notice guide for the full timeline.
How Much Will the Average Retiree Get After Medicare?
SSA estimates the average retired-worker benefit will rise from:
$2,095
to:
$2,170
after the 3.6% COLA.
Using the projected $209.50 Part B premium:
2026
Average gross benefit:
$2,095
Minus Part B:
$202.90
Approximate net after standard Part B:
$1,892.10
2027 projection
Average gross benefit:
$2,170
Minus projected Part B:
$209.50
Approximate net:
$1,960.50
Estimated monthly improvement:
$68.40
Estimated annual improvement:
$68.40 × 12 = $820.80
This is only a simplified national-average example.
Actual benefits vary widely.
Example: $1,000 Monthly Social Security Benefit
Suppose your gross monthly benefit before the 2027 COLA is:
$1,000.
A 3.6% COLA adds:
$1,000 × 0.036 = $36
New gross benefit:
$1,036
If the Part B premium rises by the projected $6.60:
Approximate net improvement:
$36 − $6.60 = $29.40 per month
So Medicare would consume part of the increase, but not all of it.
Example: $1,500 Monthly Benefit
Current gross benefit:
$1,500
3.6% COLA:
$1,500 × 0.036 = $54
Projected Part B increase:
$6.60
Approximate remaining increase:
$54 − $6.60 = $47.40 per month
Example: $2,000 Monthly Benefit
Current gross benefit:
$2,000
COLA increase:
$2,000 × 3.6% = $72
Projected Part B increase:
$6.60
Approximate remaining increase:
$65.40 per month
Example: $2,500 Monthly Benefit
Current gross benefit:
$2,500
COLA:
$2,500 × 3.6% = $90
Subtract projected Part B increase:
$90 − $6.60 = $83.40
Approximate remaining monthly increase:
$83.40
Example: $3,000 Monthly Benefit
Current gross benefit:
$3,000
COLA increase:
$3,000 × 0.036 = $108
Projected Part B increase:
$6.60
Approximate remaining increase:
$101.40 per month
2027 Social Security COLA After Projected Medicare Increase
| Current gross benefit | 3.6% COLA increase | Minus projected $6.60 Part B increase | Approx. increase remaining |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,000 | $36.00 | $6.60 | $29.40 |
| $1,500 | $54.00 | $6.60 | $47.40 |
| $2,000 | $72.00 | $6.60 | $65.40 |
| $2,500 | $90.00 | $6.60 | $83.40 |
| $3,000 | $108.00 | $6.60 | $101.40 |
| $4,000 | $144.00 | $6.60 | $137.40 |
These calculations assume:
- the final standard 2027 Part B premium is $209.50;
- the beneficiary pays the standard premium;
- no IRMAA applies;
- no other deductions change.
The actual CMS premium could differ.
Could Your Social Security Bank Deposit Still Go Down?
Yes.
The hold-harmless rule does not guarantee that your total bank deposit can never decrease.
It protects against a very specific cause:
an applicable increase in Medicare Part B premiums.
Your payment could still change because of factors such as:
- IRMAA;
- Medicare Advantage premiums;
- Part D premiums;
- federal tax withholding;
- benefit overpayment recovery;
- garnishments;
- changes to other deductions.
So someone could potentially qualify for hold-harmless protection and still receive a lower bank deposit for an unrelated reason.
Why the Hold-Harmless Rule Matters More in Some Years
The rule becomes particularly important when:
Social Security COLAs are small
and:
Medicare Part B premiums rise sharply.
Imagine a year with a very small COLA.
Someone receiving a relatively modest Social Security benefit might get only a few dollars more each month.
If Medicare premiums rise by substantially more than that, the hold-harmless provision can prevent the Part B increase from swallowing more than the beneficiary’s applicable Social Security increase.
When COLAs are comparatively large and Part B increases are modest, fewer people need the protection.
Is Hold Harmless the Same as a Medicare Premium Freeze?
No.
It does not freeze Medicare premiums nationwide.
Different beneficiaries can potentially pay different Part B premium amounts because of hold-harmless rules and other Medicare premium requirements.
Someone protected by hold harmless may temporarily pay less than another beneficiary subject to the full standard premium.
The rule protects the beneficiary’s Social Security payment rather than freezing the official standard premium for everyone.
What Happens If You Are New to Medicare in 2027?
If you begin Part B for the first time in 2027, you generally do not get the same hold-harmless protection for that first premium year.
You should plan around:
the final 2027 Part B premium announced by CMS
plus any applicable:
- IRMAA;
- late-enrollment penalty;
- Medicare Advantage premium;
- Part D premium.
Do not assume another retiree’s protected Part B premium will necessarily be your premium.
What Happens If You Delay Social Security but Have Medicare?
Some people enroll in Medicare at 65 but delay Social Security retirement benefits.
In that situation, Medicare may bill the beneficiary directly for Part B rather than deducting the premium from a Social Security payment.
Because the normal hold-harmless calculation depends on Part B being deducted from Social Security benefits during the relevant months, someone not yet receiving Social Security generally should not assume hold-harmless protection applies.
What If Medicaid Pays Your Part B Premium?
Some people with limited income and resources qualify for assistance through:
Medicare Savings Programs.
Depending on the program, a state may pay the Medicare Part B premium.
If your state is paying the premium, the usual hold-harmless situation is different because the premium is not reducing your Social Security check in the same manner.
People who think they may qualify for help with Medicare costs should contact their state Medicaid program or review Medicare’s official Medicare Savings Program information.
Does Medicare Advantage Change the Rule?
Joining a Medicare Advantage plan does not eliminate the requirement to maintain Medicare Part B.
You generally still pay the applicable Part B premium.
Some Medicare Advantage plans may:
- charge an additional plan premium;
- charge $0 additional premium;
- offer a Part B premium reduction or “giveback.”
Those plan-specific amounts are separate from the federal hold-harmless calculation.
A Medicare Advantage premium increase can therefore affect your retirement budget even when the standard Part B premium receives hold-harmless treatment.
Will Your 2027 COLA Notice Show the Medicare Deduction?
Yes.
SSA says Social Security beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare will be able to see their new 2027 benefit information after Medicare changes are incorporated.
For people using my Social Security, updated information should become available through the Message Center around late November.
Paper COLA notices are mailed during December.
Your personalized notice is more useful than a generic online calculator because it can show:
- your gross Social Security benefit;
- your Medicare deduction;
- your new benefit amount;
- other applicable deductions.
When Will the Final 2027 Medicare Part B Premium Be Announced?
CMS has not announced the final amount as of October 31, 2026.
The latest official Trustees projection remains:
$209.50.
SSA says 2027 Medicare information will be reflected in beneficiaries’ updated benefit information later in the year.
Once CMS publishes the final premium, retirees should replace projections with the actual figure when estimating their January Social Security deposit.
What Should Retirees Do Now?
1. Don’t Panic Over the $209.50 Number
It is currently:
a projection.
Wait for the final CMS announcement before treating it as your official premium.
2. Know Your Gross Social Security Benefit
The COLA is applied to your Social Security benefit before the Medicare deduction.
3. Check Your COLA Notice
Your personalized SSA notice will provide a much clearer picture of your actual 2027 payment.
4. Check Whether You Pay IRMAA
Higher-income beneficiaries should not assume the standard premium or hold-harmless protection applies to them.
5. Review Part D and Medicare Advantage Separately
The hold-harmless provision does not protect against every Medicare cost increase.
Open Enrollment runs through:
December 7, 2026.
Compare your coverage carefully.
6. Review Your Full 2027 Retirement Budget
Social Security and Medicare should be evaluated together.
Our 2027 Retirement Guide covers Social Security, Medicare and other major changes in one place.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Medicare take my entire 2027 Social Security COLA?
For most beneficiaries, that appears unlikely under the current Medicare Trustees projection.
The average retired worker is estimated to receive about $75 more per month from the 3.6% COLA, while the projected standard Part B premium increase is $6.60.
The final Part B premium has not yet been announced.
What is the 2027 Social Security COLA?
The official 2027 Social Security COLA is:
3.6%.
Higher Social Security benefits begin with payments received in January 2027.
What is the 2027 Medicare Part B premium?
The final standard premium is not official as of October 31, 2026.
The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report estimates:
$209.50 per month.
That should be treated as a projection until CMS publishes the final amount.
What is the Medicare hold-harmless rule?
It is a federal protection that can limit an applicable Medicare Part B premium increase when that increase would otherwise make a qualifying beneficiary’s net Social Security payment lower.
Does hold harmless stop Medicare Part B from increasing?
No.
The premium can still increase.
The protection limits the increase when necessary for qualifying beneficiaries.
Does everyone qualify for hold harmless?
No.
Eligibility depends on specific conditions involving Social Security entitlement, cash benefits and Part B premium deductions.
Do people paying IRMAA qualify?
SSA says people paying an income-related Part B premium do not receive the standard hold-harmless protection.
Do new Medicare beneficiaries qualify?
People enrolling in Part B for the first time generally do not get hold-harmless protection for that initial premium.
Does hold harmless cover Medicare Part D?
No.
It applies specifically to Medicare Part B premium increases.
Does it cover Medicare Advantage premiums?
No.
Medicare Advantage plan premiums and other plan-specific costs are separate.
Can my Social Security check still fall even with hold harmless?
Yes.
Other deductions can change.
The provision protects specifically against a qualifying Part B premium increase making the benefit lower.
How much will the average retired worker receive in 2027?
SSA estimates the average retired-worker benefit will rise from approximately:
$2,095
to:
$2,170 per month.
When will I know my exact 2027 Social Security payment?
SSA says personalized benefit information will become available through my Social Security around late November for many beneficiaries, with paper COLA notices mailed during December.
Bottom Line
So, will Medicare take your 2027 Social Security raise?
For most retirees paying the standard Medicare Part B premium:
probably not all of it.
Social Security benefits are officially increasing by:
3.6%.
The average retired-worker benefit is estimated to increase by approximately:
$75 per month.
Meanwhile, the Medicare Trustees currently project the standard Part B premium could increase from:
$202.90
to:
$209.50
or:
$6.60 more per month.
Under that projection, an average beneficiary would still keep most of the COLA increase after the standard Part B deduction.
And for qualifying beneficiaries whose COLA is too small to absorb a Part B increase, the:
Medicare hold-harmless provision
can limit the premium increase so their Social Security payment does not fall solely because Part B became more expensive.
But there are important exceptions.
The protection generally does not apply in the same way to:
- people paying IRMAA;
- new Part B enrollees;
- beneficiaries whose premiums are not deducted from Social Security;
- situations where Medicaid pays the Part B premium.
Most importantly:
the final 2027 Medicare Part B premium is not official yet.
The $209.50 figure remains a Trustees projection as of October 31, 2026.
Your best source for the final answer will be your personalized 2027 Social Security COLA notice after CMS announces the official Medicare premium.
Until then, remember the key distinction:
Your 3.6% Social Security COLA is official.
The $209.50 Medicare Part B premium is not.
