2027 Medicare Part B Premium: What We Know, What We Don’t — and What It Means for Your January Check

Checked against primary sources on November 11, 2026.

1. The short answer
2. The numbers: 2026 confirmed vs 2027 projected
3. What the $209.50 projection is — and where it comes from
4. What it means for your January check: three worked examples
5. The deductible and the 20% coinsurance
6. What about IRMAA?
7. When you will know for sure
8. Three things to do now
9. Frequently asked questions
10. Sources

The short answer

The 2027 Medicare Part B premium has not been announced yet. As of November 11, 2026, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has published no 2027 figure. The best number available is the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report’s projection: a standard premium of $209.50 a month, up $6.60 from $202.90 in 2026, with the annual deductible projected at $292, up $9 from $283. That is a forecast, not a bill — CMS sets the final amounts, usually in mid-November, and the final figure could come in slightly higher or lower. If the projection holds, the average retired worker’s Social Security check still rises by about $68 a month in January, because the 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) adds about $75 while Part B takes back $6.60.

The numbers: 2026 confirmed vs 2027 projected

Part B cost	2026 (confirmed by CMS)	2027 (Trustees projection)	Change
Standard monthly premium	$202.90	$209.50	+$6.60/month
Annual deductible	$283	$292	+$9/year
Annual premium total	$2,434.80	$2,514.00	+$79.20/year

The 2026 column is settled fact, published by CMS on November 14, 2025. The 2027 column is the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report’s estimate, published June 9, 2026. Keep the two columns separate in your head: one is what you pay now, the other is what the government’s own actuaries expect you to pay next year. Every other 2027 Medicare number in this article is labelled the same way.

For context, the rest of the 2027 picture is already final. The Social Security COLA is 3.6%, confirmed by the Social Security Administration (SSA) on October 14, 2026 — the average retired worker’s benefit rises from $2,095 to $2,170 a month. And the Part D drug numbers are final too: CMS set the 2027 Part D deductible at $700 and the annual out-of-pocket cap at $2,400 in its April 2026 Rate Announcement. Part B is the last big 2027 number still outstanding, which is why it gets its own article. See the full 2027 picture on our Medicare 2027 hub.

What the $209.50 projection is — and where it comes from

Each spring, the Medicare Trustees — the government’s actuaries — publish a report projecting what Part B will cost the following year. Their 2026 report projects a $209.50 standard premium for 2027. CMS then sets the actual premium in the fall, using fresher data on what Medicare spent and what it expects to spend. The announcement usually lands in mid-November: last year’s came on November 14, 2025.

The projection has usually been right or close. In recent years the final premium has landed within a few dollars of the Trustees’ estimate, sometimes exactly on it. But “usually” is not “always.” The final number depends on actual Medicare spending, and CMS can adjust it up or down. Until the CMS announcement appears, any website stating a 2027 premium as settled fact is jumping the gun.

One figure to ignore completely: $185 a month. You may see it quoted online as the 2027 premium. That is the 2025 standard premium — last year’s number, recycled. It is not the 2027 figure, projected or otherwise. If a page shows $185 for 2027, it is wrong, and you should not trust its other numbers either.

The $6.60 rise, if it holds, would be modest by recent standards: about 3.3%, against a $9.80 rise in 2024, $10.30 in 2025 and $17.90 in 2026. The reason the 2027 rise looks small is that Medicare’s projected spending growth has slowed, and the Trustees expect no repeat of the big drug-cost surprises of recent years.

What it means for your January check: three worked examples

Part B premiums come straight out of your Social Security check for most people. So the number that matters is not the premium alone — it is the premium minus the COLA. Here is the arithmetic for three typical beneficiaries, assuming the $209.50 projection holds.

Example 1: the average retired worker. Your benefit is $2,095 a month in 2026. The 3.6% COLA adds $75, taking you to $2,170 in 2027. Part B rises from $202.90 to $209.50, taking $6.60 of that. Your check after Part B: $2,170 − $209.50 = $1,960.50 a month, up from $1,892.10 in 2026. Net gain: $68.40 a month, or $820.80 over the year — before any Part D premium or taxes.

Example 2: a lower benefit of $1,200 a month. The COLA adds 3.6% of $1,200, which is $43.20, taking your benefit to $1,243.20. Part B takes $209.50, leaving $1,033.70 a month, up from $997.10 in 2026. Net gain: $36.60 a month, or $439.20 over the year. The smaller your benefit, the smaller your COLA in dollars — but the Part B increase is the same flat $6.60 for everyone, so lower-benefit retirees keep a smaller share of their raise.

Example 3: a $900-a-month benefit, where the hold-harmless rule matters. The COLA adds $32.40, taking your benefit to $932.40. Here a federal protection called the hold-harmless provision kicks in: for most people whose Part B premium is deducted from Social Security, the Part B increase cannot reduce their monthly benefit below what it was. In a year when the Part B rise outran the COLA, hold harmless would cap your premium increase at your COLA amount. In 2027 the $6.60 rise is well inside a $32.40 COLA, so the rule does not bind — but it is the reason your check can never go down because of a Part B increase, as long as you are covered by it. (It does not apply if you pay Part B directly, are new to Medicare, or pay an income-related surcharge.)

Two cautions on these examples. First, your Part D drug plan premium is deducted separately and is not in these numbers — and Part D premiums are the real 2027 shock, with the average for people who stay in their plan rising about 50%. Second, taxes: up to 85% of your Social Security can be taxable depending on your total income, and a bigger benefit can push more of it into tax. The net gain above is before tax.

The deductible and the 20% coinsurance

The premium is only the monthly charge. Before Part B pays anything, you must meet the annual deductible — projected at $292 for 2027, up $9 from $283. After the deductible, Part B pays 80% of the Medicare-approved amount for most doctor visits, outpatient care, labs and durable medical equipment, and you pay 20%, with no annual cap on that 20% in Original Medicare.

A worked example makes the deductible concrete. Suppose you see a specialist in January 2027 and the Medicare-approved amount for the visit is $500. You have not yet met your deductible, so you pay the first $292 yourself. That leaves $208, of which you pay 20% — $41.60 — and Medicare pays $166.40. Your total out-of-pocket for that visit: $333.60. The $9 deductible rise adds exactly $9 to your first bill of the year, and nothing after that. The uncapped 20% is the bigger exposure, and it is why many people pair Original Medicare with a Medigap plan — our Medigap hub explains what Medigap covers and what it does not.

What about IRMAA?

If your income is above a threshold, you pay an income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) on top of the standard premium. The 2027 IRMAA brackets and surcharges have not been published either — they come out with the premium announcement. What is already known: 2027 IRMAA is based on your 2025 tax return (modified adjusted gross income from two years ago), so nothing you do now changes your 2027 surcharge, except in limited cases where you can appeal on a life-changing event such as retirement or divorce.

For scale, in 2026 the top IRMAA tier pays $689.90 a month in total for Part B — $487 more than the standard premium. The 2027 tiers will be announced alongside the $209.50 figure. If you are near a threshold, the announcement matters more to you than to anyone: a dollar of income over a line can cost hundreds a year. Our Medicare 2027 hub will be updated the day the figures land.

When you will know for sure

Date	What happens
Mid-November 2026	CMS announces the final 2027 Part B premium, deductible and IRMAA — expected any day; last year’s announcement was November 14
By November 18, 2026	Create a my Social Security account and go paperless to see your COLA notice online — up to three weeks before the mailed version
Late November 2026	Your 2027 benefit amount, including the Part B deduction, appears in your my Social Security Message Center
December 2026	Mailed COLA notices arrive with your exact 2027 benefit and deduction
December 7, 2026	Medicare Open Enrollment ends — your last chance to change plans for 2027
January 1, 2027	The new premium and deductible take effect; first COLA-boosted payments arrive

The practical point: you do not need to wait for the CMS announcement to make your Open Enrollment decisions. The premium is the same $209.50 (give or take a few dollars) whichever plan you pick, because Part B is charged by Medicare, not by your plan. What changes with your plan choice is your Part D premium, your drug formulary, and your doctors’ network — and those are the decisions the December 7 deadline locks in. Our Open Enrollment checklist walks through them.

If you want your exact numbers as early as possible, set up a my Social Security account and switch to paperless statements by November 18. Our COLA notice guide explains the deadline and the scam warning attached to it: SSA will never call, text or email asking you to “activate” your COLA.

Three things to do now

1. Check whether your state can pay your Part B premium. Medicare Savings Programs pay the Part B premium — and sometimes more — for people with limited income and resources, with the income limits tied to the federal poverty level and higher in many states. If you qualify, the state pays the whole premium, so the premium question disappears for you. Our Medicare Savings Programs guide has the income tables and explains how to apply through your state Medicaid office.

2. Look at your drug costs, not just Part B. Part B’s $6.60 rise is small; Part D is where 2027 bites. The deductible rises to $700 and the out-of-pocket cap to $2,400, but the cap only helps if your plan’s premium and formulary are right for your drugs. If your income is limited, Extra Help can cut Part D costs to a few dollars per prescription — and it is worth about $5,700 a year on average for people who qualify.

3. Budget on the projection, not the hope. Plan your January budget using $209.50 and $2,170 as your working numbers. If CMS announces a dollar or two either way, your budget moves by the same small amount — and you will know your exact figure in your my Social Security account in late November, before the first 2027 payment arrives.

Frequently asked questions

Sources

• Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, “2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles” (fact sheet, November 14, 2025) — https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2026-medicare-parts-b-premiums-deductibles
• Social Security Administration, cost-of-living adjustment information — https://www.ssa.gov/cola/
• Medicare.gov, “Your Medicare costs” — https://www.medicare.gov/basics/costs/medicare-costs
• 2026 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds (June 9, 2026) — 2027 Part B premium and deductible projections
• Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, CY 2027 Rate Announcement (April 6, 2026) — Part D deductible $700 and out-of-pocket cap $2,400

Figures checked against primary sources on November 11, 2026. The 2027 Part B premium and deductible are Trustees projections until CMS announces the final amounts.